Appendix C to Part 417 - Flight Safety Analysis Methodologies and Products for an Unguided Suborbital Launch Vehicle Flown With a Wind Weighting Safety System
14:4.0.2.9.10.7.24.1.18 : Appendix C
Appendix C to Part 417 - Flight Safety Analysis Methodologies and
Products for an Unguided Suborbital Launch Vehicle Flown With a
Wind Weighting Safety System Link to an amendment published at 85
FR 79716, Dec. 10, 2020. C417.1 General
(a) This appendix contains methodologies for performing the
flight safety analysis required for the launch of an unguided
suborbital launch vehicle flown with a wind weighting safety
system, except for the hazard area analysis required by § 417.107,
which is covered in appendix B of this part. This appendix includes
methodologies for a trajectory analysis, wind weighting analysis,
debris analysis, debris risk analysis, and a collision avoidance
analysis.
(b) The requirements of this appendix apply to a launch operator
and the launch operator's flight safety analysis unless the launch
operator clearly and convincingly demonstrates that an alternative
approach provides an equivalent level of safety.
(c) A launch operator must:
(1) Perform a flight safety analysis to determine the launch
parameters and conditions under which an unguided suborbital launch
vehicle may be flown using a wind weighting safety system as
required by § 417.233.
(2) When conducting the flight safety analysis, comply with the
safety criteria and operational requirements contained in §
417.125; and
(3) Conduct the flight safety analysis for an unguided
suborbital launch vehicle using the methodologies of this appendix
and appendix B of this part unless the launch operator
demonstrates, in accordance with § 406.3(b), through the licensing
process, that an alternate method provides an equivalent level of
fidelity.
C417.3 Trajectory analysis
(a) General. A launch operator must perform a trajectory
analysis for the flight of an unguided suborbital launch vehicle to
determine:
(1) The launch vehicle's nominal trajectory;
(2) Each nominal drag impact point; and
(3) Each potential three-sigma dispersion about each nominal
drag impact point.
(b) Definitions. A launch operator must employ the
following definitions when determining an unguided suborbital
launch vehicle's trajectory and drag impact points:
(1) Drag impact point means the intersection of a
predicted ballistic trajectory of an unguided suborbital launch
vehicle stage or other impacting component with the Earth's
surface. A drag impact point reflects the effects of atmospheric
influences as a function of drag forces and mach number.
(2) Maximum range trajectory means an optimized
trajectory, extended through fuel exhaustion of each stage, to
achieve a maximum downrange drag impact point.
(3) Nominal trajectory means the trajectory that an
unguided suborbital launch vehicle will fly if all rocket
aerodynamic parameters are as expected without error, all rocket
internal and external systems perform exactly as planned, and there
are no external perturbing influences, such as winds, other than
atmospheric drag and gravity.
(4) Normal flight means all possible trajectories of a
properly performing unguided suborbital launch vehicle whose drag
impact point location does not deviate from its nominal location
more than three sigma in each of the uprange, downrange, left
crossrange, or right crossrange directions.
(5) Performance error parameter means a quantifiable
perturbing force that contributes to the dispersion of a drag
impact point in the uprange, downrange, and cross-range directions
of an unguided suborbital launch vehicle stage or other impacting
launch vehicle component. Performance error parameters for the
launch of an unguided suborbital launch vehicle reflect rocket
performance variations and any external forces that can cause
offsets from the nominal trajectory during normal flight.
Performance error parameters include thrust, thrust misalignment,
specific impulse, weight, variation in firing times of the stages,
fuel flow rates, contributions from the wind weighting safety
system employed, and winds.
(c) Input. A trajectory analysis requires the input
necessary to produce a six-degree-of-freedom trajectory. A launch
operator must use each of the following as inputs to the trajectory
computations:
(1) Launcher data, as follows -
(i) Geodetic latitude and longitude;
(ii) Height above sea level;
(iii) All location errors; and
(iv) Launch azimuth and elevation.
(2) Reference ellipsoidal Earth model, as follows -
(i) Name of the Earth model employed;
(ii) Semi-major axis;
(iii) Semi-minor axis;
(iv) Eccentricity;
(v) Flattening parameter;
(vi) Gravitational parameter;
(vii) Rotation angular velocity;
(viii) Gravitational harmonic constants; and
(ix) Mass of the Earth.
(3) Vehicle characteristics for each stage. A launch
operator must identify the following for each stage of an unguided
suborbital launch vehicle's flight:
(i) Nozzle exit area of each stage.
(ii) Distance from the rocket nose-tip to the nozzle exit for
each stage.
(iii) Reference drag area and reference diameter of the rocket
including any payload for each stage of flight.
(iv) Thrust as a function of time.
(v) Propellant weight as a function of time.
(vi) Coefficient of drag as a function of mach number.
(vii) Distance from the rocket nose-tip to center of gravity as
a function of time.
(viii) Yaw moment of inertia as a function of time.
(ix) Pitch moment of inertia as a function of time.
(x) Pitch damping coefficient as a function of mach number.
(xi) Aerodynamic damping coefficient as a function of mach
number.
(xii) Normal force coefficient as a function of mach number.
(xiii) Distance from the rocket nose-tip to center of pressure
as a function of mach number.
(xiv) Axial force coefficient as a function of mach number.
(xv) Roll rate as a function of time.
(xvi) Gross mass of each stage.
(xvii) Burnout mass of each stage.
(xviii) Vacuum thrust.
(xix) Vacuum specific impulse.
(xx) Stage dimensions.
(xxi) Weight of each spent stage.
(xxii) Payload mass properties.
(xxiii) Nominal launch elevation and azimuth.
(4) Launch events. Each stage ignition times, each stage
burn time, and each stage separation time, referenced to ignition
time of first stage.
(5) Atmosphere. Density as a function of altitude,
pressure as a function of altitude, speed of sound as a function of
altitude, temperature as a function of altitude.
(6) Wind errors. Error in measurement of wind direction
as a function of altitude and wind magnitude as a function of
altitude, wind forecast error, such as error due to time delay from
wind measurement to launch.
(d) Methodology for determining the nominal trajectory and
nominal drag impact points. A launch operator must employ the
steps in paragraphs (d)(1)-(d)(3) of this section to determine the
nominal trajectory and the nominal drag impact point locations for
each impacting rocket stage and component:
(1) A launch operator must identify each performance error
parameter associated with the unguided suborbital launch vehicle's
design and operation and the value for each parameter that reflect
nominal rocket performance. A launch operator must identify each
performance error parameter's distribution to account for all
launch vehicle performance variations and any external forces that
can cause offsets from the nominal trajectory during normal flight.
These performance error parameters include thrust misalignment,
thrust variation, weight variation, fin misalignment, impulse
variation, aerodynamic drag variation, staging timing variation,
stage separation-force variation, drag error, uncompensated wind,
launcher elevation angle error, launcher azimuth angle error,
launcher tip-off, and launcher location error.
(2) A launch operator must perform a no-wind trajectory
simulation using a six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) trajectory
simulation with all performance error parameters set to their
nominal values to determine the impact point of each stage or
component. The 6-DOF trajectory simulation must provide rocket
position translation along three axes of an orthogonal
Earth-centered coordinate system and rocket orientation in roll,
pitch and yaw. The 6-DOF trajectory simulation must compute each
translation and orientation in response to forces and moments
internal and external to the rocket including all the effects of
the input data required by paragraph (c) of this section. A launch
operator may incorporate the following assumptions in a 6-DOF
trajectory simulation:
(i) The airframe may be treated as a rigid body.
(ii) The airframe may have a plane of symmetry coinciding with
the vertical plane of reference.
(iii) The vehicle may have aerodynamic symmetry in roll.
(iv) The airframe may have six degrees-of-freedom.
(v) The aerodynamic forces and moments may be functions of mach
number and may be linear with small flow incidence angles of
attack.
(3) A launch operator must tabulate the geodetic latitude and
longitude of the launch vehicle's nominal drag impact point as a
function of trajectory time and the final nominal drag impact point
of each planned impacting stage or component.
(e) Methodology for determining maximum downrange drag impact
points. A launch operator must compute the maximum possible
downrange drag impact point for each launch vehicle stage and
impacting component. A launch operator must use the nominal drag
impact point methodology, as defined by paragraph (d) of this
section, modified to optimize the unguided suborbital launch
vehicle's performance and flight profile to create the conditions
for a maximum downrange drag impact point, including fuel
exhaustion for each stage and impacting component.
(f) Methodology for computing drag impact point
dispersions. A launch operator must employ the steps in
paragraphs (f)(1)-(f)(3) of this section when determining the
dispersions in terms of drag impact point distance standard
deviations in uprange, downrange, and crossrange direction from the
nominal drag impact point location for each stage and impacting
component:
(1) For each stage of flight, a launch operator must identify
the plus and minus one-sigma values for each performance error
parameter identified as required by paragraph (d)(1) of this
section (i.e., nominal value plus one standard deviation and
nominal value minus one standard deviation). A launch operator must
determine the dispersion in downrange, uprange, and left and right
crossrange for each impacting stage and component. A launch
operator may either perform a Monte Carlo analysis that accounts
for the distribution of each performance error parameter or
determine the dispersion by a root-sum-square method under
paragraph (f)(2) of this section.
(2) When using a root-sum-square method to determine dispersion,
a launch operator must determine the deviations for a given stage
by evaluating the deviations produced in that stage due to the
performance errors in that stage and all preceding stages of the
launch vehicle as illustrated in Table C417-1, and by computing the
square root of the sum of the squares of each deviation caused by
each performance error parameter's one sigma dispersion for each
stage in each of the right crossrange, left crossrange, uprange and
downrange directions. A launch operator must evaluate the
performance errors for one stage at a time, with the performance of
all subsequent stages assumed to be nominal. A launch operator's
root-sum-square method must incorporate the following
requirements:
(i) With the 6-DOF trajectory simulation used to determine
nominal drag impact points as required by paragraph (d) of this
section, perform a series of trajectory simulation runs for each
stage and planned ejected debris, such as a fairing, payload, or
other component, and, for each simulation, model only one
performance error parameter set to either its plus or minus
one-sigma value. For a given simulation run, set all other
performance error parameters to their nominal values. Continue
until achieving a trajectory simulation run for each plus one-sigma
performance error parameter value and each minus one-sigma
performance error parameter value for the stage or the planned
ejected debris being evaluated. For each trajectory simulation run
and for each impact being evaluated, tabulate the downrange,
uprange, left crossrange, and right crossrange drag impact point
distance deviations measured from the nominal drag impact point
location for that stage or planned debris.
(ii) For uprange, downrange, right crossrange, and left
crossrange, compute the square root of the sum of the squares of
the distance deviations in each direction. The square root of the
sum of the squares distance value for each direction represents the
one-sigma drag impact point dispersion in that direction. For a
multiple stage rocket, perform the first stage series of simulation
runs with all subsequent stage performance error parameters set to
their nominal value. Tabulate the uprange, downrange, right
crossrange, and left crossrange distance deviations from the
nominal impact for each subsequent drag impact point location
caused by the first stage one-sigma performance error parameter.
Use these deviations in determining the total drag impact point
dispersions for the subsequent stage impacts as described in
paragraph (f)(2)(iii) of this section.
(iii) For each subsequent stage impact of an unguided suborbital
launch vehicle, determine the one-sigma impact dispersions by first
determining the one-sigma distance deviations for that stage impact
caused by each preceding stage as described in paragraph (f)(2)(ii)
of this section. Then perform a series of simulation runs and
tabulate the uprange, downrange, right crossrange, and left
crossrange drag impact point distance deviations as described in
paragraph (f)(2)(i) of this section for that stage's one-sigma
performance error parameter values with the preceding stage
performance parameters set to nominal values. For each uprange,
downrange, right crossrange, and left crossrange direction, compute
the square root of the sum of the squares of the stage impact
distance deviations due to that stage's and each preceding stage's
one-sigma performance error parameter values. This square root of
the sum of the squares distance value for each direction represents
the total one-sigma drag impact point dispersion in that direction
for the nominal drag impact point location of that stage. Use these
deviations when determining the total drag impact point dispersions
for the subsequent stage impacts.
(3) A launch operator must determine a three-sigma dispersion
area for each impacting stage or component as an ellipse that is
centered at the nominal drag impact point location and has
semi-major and semi-minor axes along the uprange, downrange, left
crossrange, and right crossrange axes. The length of each axis must
be three times as large as the total one-sigma drag impact point
dispersions in each direction.
(g) Trajectory analysis products for a suborbital launch
vehicle. A launch operator must file the following products of
a trajectory analysis for an unguided suborbital launch vehicle
with the FAA as required by § 417.203(e):
(1) A description of the process that the launch operator used
for performing the trajectory analysis, including the number of
simulation runs and the process for any Monte Carlo analysis
performed.
(2) A description of all assumptions and procedures the launch
operator used in deriving each of the performance error parameters
and their standard deviations.
(3) Launch point origin data: name, geodetic latitude (+N),
longitude (+E), geodetic height, and launch azimuth measured
clockwise from true north.
(4) Name of reference ellipsoid Earth model used. If a launch
operator employs a reference ellipsoid Earth model other than
WGS-84, Department of Defense World Geodetic System, Military
Standard 2401 (Jan. 11, 1994), the launch operator must identify
the semi-major axis, semi-minor axis, eccentricity, flattening
parameter, gravitational parameter, rotation angular velocity,
gravitational harmonic constants (e.g., J2, J3, J4), and mass of
Earth.
(5) If a launch operator converts latitude and longitude
coordinates between different ellipsoidal Earth models to complete
a trajectory analysis, the launch operator must file the equations
for geodetic datum conversions and a sample calculation for
converting the geodetic latitude and longitude coordinates between
the models employed.
(6) A launch operator must file tabular data that lists each
performance error parameter used in the trajectory computations and
each performance error parameter's plus and minus one-sigma values.
If the launch operator employs a Monte Carlo analysis method for
determining the dispersions about the nominal drag impact point,
the tabular data must list the total one-sigma drag impact point
distance deviations in each direction for each impacting stage and
component. If the launch operator employs the square root of the
sum of the squares method of paragraph (f)(2) of this section, the
tabular data must include the one-sigma drag impact point distance
deviations in each direction due to each one-sigma performance
error parameter value for each impacting stage and component.
(7) A launch operator must file a graphical depiction showing
geographical landmasses and the nominal and maximum range
trajectories from liftoff until impact of the final stage. The
graphical depiction must plot trajectory points in time intervals
of no greater than one second during thrusting flight and for times
corresponding to ignition, thrust termination or burnout, and
separation of each stage or impacting body. If there are less than
four seconds between stage separation or other jettison events, a
launch operator must reduce the time intervals between plotted
trajectory points to 0.2 seconds or less. The graphical depiction
must show total launch vehicle velocity as a function of time,
present-position ground-range as a function of time, altitude above
the reference ellipsoid as a function of time, and the static
stability margin as a function of time.
(8) A launch operator must file tabular data that describes the
nominal and maximum range trajectories from liftoff until impact of
the final stage. The tabular data must include the time after
liftoff, altitude above the reference ellipsoid, present position
ground range, and total launch vehicle velocity for ignition,
burnout, separation, booster apogee, and booster impact of each
stage or impacting body. The launch operator must file the tabular
data for the same time intervals required by paragraph (g)(7) of
this section.
(9) A launch operator must file a graphical depiction showing
all geographical landmasses and the unguided suborbital launch
vehicle's drag impact point for the nominal trajectory, the maximum
impact range boundary, and the three-sigma drag impact point
dispersion area for each impacting stage or component. The
graphical depiction must show the following in relationship to each
other: The nominal trajectory, a circle whose radius represents the
range to the farthest downrange impact point that results from the
maximum range trajectory, and the three-sigma drag impact point
dispersions for each impacting stage and component.
(10) A launch operator must file tabular data that describes the
nominal trajectory, the maximum impact range boundary, and each
three-sigma drag impact point dispersion area. The tabular data
must include the geodetic latitude (positive north of the equator)
and longitude (positive east of the Greenwich Meridian) of each
point describing the nominal drag impact point positions, the
maximum range circle, and each three-sigma impact dispersion area
boundary. Each three-sigma dispersion area must be described by no
less than 20 coordinate pairs. All coordinates must be rounded to
the fourth decimal point.
C417.5 Wind weighting analysis
(a) General. As part of a wind weighting safety system, a
launch operator must perform a wind weighting analysis to determine
launcher azimuth and elevation settings that correct for the
windcocking and wind-drift effects on an unguided suborbital launch
vehicle due to forecasted winds in the airspace region of flight. A
launch operator's wind weighting safety system and its operation
must comply with § 417.125(c). The launch azimuth and elevation
settings resulting from a launch operator's wind weighting analysis
must produce a trajectory, under actual wind conditions, that
results in a final stage drag impact point that is the same as the
final stage's nominal drag impact point determined according to
section C417.3(d).
(b) Wind weighting analysis constraints. (1) A launch
operator's wind weighting analysis must:
(i) Account for the winds in the airspace region through which
the rocket will fly. A launch operator's wind weighting safety
system must include an operational method of determining the wind
direction and wind magnitude at all altitudes that the rocket will
reach up to the maximum altitude defined by dispersion analysis as
required by section C417.3.
(ii) Account for all errors due to the methods used to measure
the winds in the airspace region of the launch, delay associated
with wind measurement, and the method used to model the effects of
winds. The resulting sum of these error components must be no
greater than those used as the wind error dispersion parameter in
the launch vehicle trajectory analysis performed as required by
section C417.3.
(iii) Account for the dispersion of all impacting debris,
including any uncorrected wind error accounted for in the
trajectory analysis performed as required by section C417.3.
(iv) Establish flight commit criteria that are a function of the
analysis and operational methods employed and reflect the maximum
wind velocities and wind variability for which the results of the
wind weighting analysis are valid.
(v) Account for the wind effects during each thrusting phase of
an unguided suborbital launch vehicle's flight and each ballistic
phase of each rocket stage and component until burnout of the last
stage.
(vi) Determine the impact point location for any parachute
recovery of a stage or component or the launch operator must
perform a wind drift analysis to determine the parachute impact
point location.
(2) A launch operator must perform a wind weighting analysis
using a six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) trajectory simulation that
targets an impact point using an iterative process. The 6-DOF
simulation must account for launch day wind direction and wind
magnitude as a function of altitude.
(3) A launch operator must perform a wind weighting analysis
using a computer program or other method of editing wind data,
recording the time the data was obtained, and recording the balloon
number or identification of any other measurement device used for
each wind altitude layer.
(c) Methodology for performing a wind weighting analysis.
A launch operator's method for performing a wind weighting analysis
on the day of flight must account for the following:
(1) A launch operator must measure the winds on the day of
flight to determine wind velocity and direction. A launch
operator's process for measuring winds must provide wind data that
is consistent with any assumptions made in the launch operator's
trajectory and drag impact point dispersion analysis, as required
by section C417.3, regarding the actual wind data available on the
day of flight. Wind measurements must be made at altitude
increments such that the maximum correction between any two
measurements does not exceed 5%. Winds must be measured from the
ground level at the launch point to a maximum altitude that is
consistent with the launch operator's drag impact point dispersion
analysis. The maximum wind measurement altitude must be that
necessary to account for 99% of the wind effect on the impact
dispersion point. A launch operator's wind measuring process must
employ the use of balloons and radar tracking or balloons fitted
with a Global Positioning System transceiver, and must account for
the following:
(i) Measure winds from ground level to an altitude of at least
that necessary to account for 99% of the wind effect on the impact
dispersion point within six hours before flight and after any
weather front passes the launch site before liftoff. Repeat a wind
measurement up to the maximum altitude whenever a wind measurement,
for any given altitude, from a later balloon release is not
consistent with a wind measurement, for the same altitude, from an
earlier balloon release.
(ii) Measure winds from ground level to an altitude of at least
that necessary to account for 95% of the wind effect on the impact
dispersion point within four hours before flight and after any
weather front passes the launch site before liftoff. Repeat a wind
measurement to the 95% wind effect altitude whenever a wind
measurement, for any given altitude, from a later lower altitude
balloon release is not consistent with the wind measurement, for
the same altitude, from the 95% wind effect altitude balloon
release.
(iii) Measure winds from ground level to an altitude of no less
than that necessary to account for 80% of the wind effect on the
impact dispersion point twice within 30 minutes of liftoff. Use the
first measurement to set launcher azimuth and elevation, and the
second measurement to verify the first measurement data.
(2) A launch operator must perform runs of the 6-DOF trajectory
simulation using the flight day measured winds as input and
targeting for the nominal final stage drag impact point. In an
iterative process, vary the launcher elevation angle and azimuth
angle settings for each simulation run until the nominal final
stage impact point is achieved. The launch operator must use the
resulting launcher elevation angle and azimuth angle settings to
correct for the flight day winds. The launch operator must not
initiate flight unless the launcher elevation angle and azimuth
angle settings after wind weighting are in accordance with the
following:
(i) The launcher elevation angle setting resulting from the wind
weighting analysis must not exceed ±5° from the nominal launcher
elevation angle setting and must not exceed a total of 86° for a
proven launch vehicle, and 84° for an unproven launch vehicle. A
launch operator's nominal launcher elevation angle setting must be
as required by § 417.125(c)(3).
(ii) The launcher azimuth angle setting resulting from the wind
weighting analysis must not exceed + 30° from the nominal launcher
azimuth angle setting unless the launch operator demonstrates
clearly and convincingly, through the licensing process, that its
unguided suborbital launch vehicle has a low sensitivity to high
wind speeds, and the launch operator's wind weighting analysis and
wind measuring process provide an equivalent level of safety.
(3) Using the trajectory produced in paragraph (c)(2) of this
section, for each intermediate stage and planned ejected component,
a launch operator must compute the impact point that results from
wind drift by performing a run of the 6-DOF trajectory simulation
with the launcher angles determined in paragraph (c)(2) of this
section and the flight day winds from liftoff until the burnout
time or ejection time of the stage or ejected component. The
resulting impact point(s) must be accounted for when performing
flight day ship-hit operations defined in section B417.11(c).
(4) If a parachute is used for any stage or component, a launch
operator must determine the wind drifted impact point of the stage
or component using a trajectory simulation that incorporates
modeling for the change in aerodynamics at parachute ejection.
Perform this simulation run in addition to any simulation of spent
stages without parachutes.
(5) A launch operator must verify that the launcher elevation
angle and azimuth angle settings at the time of liftoff are the
same as required by the wind weighting analysis.
(6) A launch operator must monitor and verify that any wind
variations and maximum wind limits at the time of liftoff are
within the flight commit criteria established according to §
417.113(c).
(7) A launch operator must generate output data from its wind
weighting analysis for each impacting stage or component in
printed, plotted, or computer medium format. This data must
include:
(i) Launch day wind measurement data, including magnitude and
direction.
(ii) The results of each computer run made using the launch day
wind measurement data, including but not limited to, launcher
settings, and impact locations for each stage or component.
(iii) Final launcher settings recorded.
(d) Wind weighting analysis products. The products of a
launch operator's wind weighting analysis filed with the FAA as
required by § 417.203(e) must include the following:
(1) A launch operator must file a description of its wind
weighting analysis methods, including its method and schedule of
determining wind speed and wind direction for each altitude
layer.
(2) A launch operator must file a description of its wind
weighting safety system and identify all equipment used to perform
the wind weighting analysis, such as any wind towers, balloons, or
Global Positioning System wind measurement system employed and the
type of trajectory simulation employed.
(3) A launch operator must file a sample wind weighting analysis
using actual or statistical winds for the launch area and provide
samples of the output required by paragraph (c)(7) of this
section.
C417.7 Debris analysis
(a) General. A flight safety analysis must include a
debris analysis that satisfies the requirements of § 417.211. This
section applies to the debris data required by § 417.211 and the
debris analysis products that a launch operator must file with the
FAA as required by § 417.203(e).
(b) Debris analysis constraints. A debris analysis must
produce the debris model described in paragraph (c) of this
section. The analysis must account for all launch vehicle debris
fragments, individually or in groupings of fragments called
classes. The characteristics of each debris fragment represented by
a class must be similar enough to the characteristics of all the
other debris fragments represented by that class that all the
debris fragments of the class can be described by a single set of
characteristics. Paragraph (c)(10) of this section applies when
establishing a debris class. A debris model must describe the
physical, aerodynamic, and harmful characteristics of each debris
fragment either individually or as a member of a class. A debris
model must consist of lists of individual debris or debris classes
for each cause of breakup and any planned jettison of debris,
launch vehicle components, or payload. A debris analysis must
account for:
(1) Debris due to any malfunction where forces on the launch
vehicle may exceed the launch vehicle's structural integrity
limits.
(2) The immediate post-breakup or jettison environment of the
launch vehicle debris, and any change in debris characteristics
over time from launch vehicle breakup or jettison until debris
impact.
(3) The impact overpressure, fragmentation, and secondary debris
effects of any confined or unconfined solid propellant chunks and
fueled components containing either liquid or solid propellants
that could survive to impact, as a function of vehicle malfunction
time.
(4) The effects of impact of the intact vehicle as a function of
failure time. The intact impact debris analysis must identify the
trinitrotoluene (TNT) yield of impact explosions, and the numbers
of fragments projected from all such explosions, including
non-launch vehicle ejecta and the blast overpressure radius. The
analysis must use a model for TNT yield of impact explosion that
accounts for the propellant weight at impact, the impact speed, the
orientation of the propellant, and the impacted surface
material.
(c) Debris model. A debris analysis must produce a model
of the debris resulting from planned jettison and from unplanned
breakup of a launch vehicle for use as input to other analyses,
such as establishing hazard areas and performing debris risk and
toxic analyses. A launch operator's debris model must satisfy the
following:
(1) Debris fragments. A debris model must provide the
debris fragment data required by this section for the launch
vehicle flight from the planned ignition time until thrust
termination of the last thrusting stage. A debris model must
provide debris fragment data for the number of time periods
sufficient to meet the requirements for smooth and continuous
contours used to define hazard areas as required by appendix B of
this part.
(2) Inert fragments. A debris model must identify all
inert fragments that are not volatile and that do not burn or
explode under normal and malfunction conditions. A debris model
must identify all inert fragments for each breakup time during
flight corresponding to a critical event when the fragment catalog
is significantly changed by the event. Critical events include
staging, payload fairing jettison, and other normal hardware
jettison activities.
(3) Explosive and non-explosive propellant fragments. A
debris model must identify all propellant fragments that are
explosive or non-explosive upon impact. The debris model must
describe each propellant fragment as a function of time, from the
time of breakup through ballistic free-fall to impact. The debris
model must describe the characteristics of each fragment, including
its origin on the launch vehicle, representative dimensions and
weight at the time of breakup and at the time of impact. For any
fragment identified as an un-contained or contained propellant
fragment, whether explosive or non-explosive, the debris model must
identify whether or not it burns during free fall, and provide the
consumption rate during free fall. The debris model must
identify:
(i) Solid propellant that is exposed directly to the atmosphere
and that burns but does not explode upon impact as “un-contained
non-explosive solid propellant.”
(ii) Solid or liquid propellant that is enclosed in a container,
such as a motor case or pressure vessel, and that burns but does
not explode upon impact as “contained non-explosive
propellant.”
(iii) Solid or liquid propellant that is enclosed in a
container, such as a motor case or pressure vessel, and that
explodes upon impact as “contained explosive propellant
fragment.”
(iv) Solid propellant that is exposed directly to the atmosphere
and that explodes upon impact as “un-contained explosive solid
propellant fragment.”
(4) Other non-inert debris fragments. In addition to the
explosive and flammable fragments identified under paragraph (c)(3)
of this section, a debris model must identify any other non-inert
debris fragments, such as toxic or radioactive fragments, that
present any other hazards to the public.
(5) Fragment weight. At each modeled breakup time, the
individual fragment weights must approximately add up to the sum
total weight of inert material in the vehicle and the weight of
contained liquid propellants and solid propellants that are not
consumed in the initial breakup or conflagration.
(6) Fragment imparted velocity. A debris model must
identify the maximum velocity imparted to each fragment due to
potential explosion or pressure rupture. When accounting for
imparted velocity, a debris model must:
(i) Use a Maxwellian distribution with the specified maximum
value equal to the 97th percentile; or
(ii) Identify the distribution, and state whether or not the
specified maximum value is a fixed value with no uncertainty.
(7) Fragment projected area. A debris model must include
each of the axial, transverse, and mean tumbling areas of each
fragment. If the fragment may stabilize under normal or malfunction
conditions, the debris model must also provide the projected area
normal to the drag force.
(8) Fragment ballistic coefficient. A debris model must
include the axial, transverse, and tumble orientation ballistic
coefficient for each fragment's projected area as required by
paragraph (c)(7) of this section.
(9) Debris fragment count. A debris model must include
the total number of each type of fragment required by paragraphs
(c)(2), (c)(3), and (c)(4) of this section and created by a
malfunction.
(10) Fragment classes. A debris model must categorize
malfunction debris fragments into classes where the characteristics
of the mean fragment in each class conservatively represent every
fragment in the class. The model must define fragment classes for
fragments whose characteristics are similar enough to be described
and treated by a single average set of characteristics. A debris
class must categorize debris by each of the following
characteristics, and may include any other useful
characteristics:
(i) The type of fragment, defined by paragraphs (c)(2), (c)(3),
and (c)(4) of this section. All fragments within a class must be
the same type, such as inert or explosive.
(ii) Debris subsonic ballistic coefficient (βsub). The
difference between the smallest log10(βsub) value and the largest
log10(βsub) value in a class must not exceed 0.5, except for
fragments with βsub less than or equal to three. Fragments with
βsub less than or equal to three may be grouped within a class.
(iii) Breakup-imparted velocity (ΔV). A debris model must
categorize fragments as a function of the range of ΔV for the
fragments within a class and the class's median subsonic ballistic
coefficient. For each class, the debris model must keep the ratio
of the maximum breakup-imparted velocity (ΔVmax) to minimum
breakup-imparted velocity (ΔVmin) within the following bound:
Where: β′sub is the median subsonic ballistic
coefficient for the fragments in a class.
(d) Debris analysis products. The products of a debris
analysis that a launch operator must file with the FAA as required
by § 417.203(e) must include:
(1) Debris model. The launch operator's debris model that
satisfies the requirements of this section.
(2) Fragment description. A description of the fragments
contained in the launch operator's debris model. The description
must identify the fragment as a launch vehicle part or component,
describe its shape, representative dimensions, and may include
drawings of the fragment.
(3) Intact impact TNT yield. For an intact impact of a
launch vehicle, for each failure time, a launch operator must
identify the TNT yield of each impact explosion and blast
overpressure hazard radius.
(4) Fragment class data. The class name, the range of
values for each parameter used to categorize fragments within a
fragment class, and the number of fragments in any fragment class
established as required by paragraph (c)(10) of this section.
(5) Ballistic coefficient. The mean ballistic coefficient
(β) and plus and minus three-sigma values of the β for each
fragment class. A launch operator must provide graphs of the
coefficient of drag (Cd) as a function of Mach number for the
nominal and three-sigma β variations for each fragment shape. The
launch operator must label each graph with the shape represented by
the curve and reference area used to develop the curve. A launch
operator must provide a Cd vs. Mach curve for any axial,
transverse, and tumble orientations for any fragment that will not
stabilize during free-fall conditions. For any fragment that may
stabilize during free-fall, a launch operator must provide Cd vs.
Mach curves for the stability angle of attack. If the angle of
attack where the fragment stabilizes is other than zero degrees, a
launch operator must provide both the coefficient of lift (CL) vs.
Mach number and the Cd vs. Mach number curves. The launch operator
must provide the equations for each Cd vs. Mach curve.
(6) Pre-flight propellant weight. The initial preflight
weight of solid and liquid propellant for each launch vehicle
component that contains solid or liquid propellant.
(7) Normal propellant consumption. The nominal and plus
and minus three-sigma solid and liquid propellant consumption rate,
and pre-malfunction consumption rate for each component that
contains solid or liquid propellant.
(8) Fragment weight. The mean and plus and minus
three-sigma weight of each fragment or fragment class.
(9) Projected area. The mean and plus and minus
three-sigma axial, transverse, and tumbling areas for each fragment
or fragment class. This information is not required for those
fragment classes classified as burning propellant classes under
section A417.25(b)(8).
(10) Imparted velocities. The maximum incremental
velocity imparted to each fragment class created by explosive or
overpressure loads at breakup. The launch operator must identify
the velocity distribution as Maxwellian or must define the
distribution, including whether or not the specified maximum value
is a fixed value with no uncertainty.
(11) Fragment type. The fragment type for each fragment
established as required by paragraphs (c)(2), (c)(3), and (c)(4) of
this section.
(12) Origin. The part of the launch vehicle from which
each fragment originated.
(13) Burning propellant classes. The propellant
consumption rate for those fragments that burn during
free-fall.
(14) Contained propellant fragments, explosive or
non-explosive. For contained propellant fragments, whether
explosive or non-explosive, a launch operator must provide the
initial weight of contained propellant and the consumption rate
during free-fall. The initial weight of the propellant in a
contained propellant fragment is the weight of the propellant
before any of the propellant is consumed by normal vehicle
operation or failure of the launch vehicle.
(15) Solid propellant fragment snuff-out pressure. The
ambient pressure and the pressure at the surface of a solid
propellant fragment, in pounds per square inch, required to sustain
a solid propellant fragment's combustion during free-fall.
(16) Other non-inert debris fragments. For each non-inert
debris fragment identified as required by paragraph (c)(4) of this
section, a launch operator must describe the diffusion, dispersion,
deposition, radiation, and other hazard exposure characteristics
used to determine the effective casualty area required by paragraph
(c)(9) of this section.
(17) Residual thrust dispersion. For each thrusting or
non-thrusting stage having residual thrust capability following a
launch vehicle malfunction, a launch operator must provide either
the total residual impulse imparted or the full-residual thrust in
foot-pounds as a function of breakup time. For any stage not
capable of thrust after a launch vehicle malfunction, a launch
operator must provide the conditions under which the stage is no
longer capable of thrust. For each stage that can be ignited as a
result of a launch vehicle malfunction on a lower stage, a launch
operator must identify the effects and duration of the potential
thrust, and the maximum deviation of the instantaneous impact point
which can be brought about by the thrust.
C417.9 Debris risk
(a) General. A launch operator must perform a debris risk
analysis that satisfies the requirements of § 417.225. This section
applies to the computation of the average number of casualties (Ec)
to the collective members of the public exposed to inert and
explosive debris hazards from the proposed flight of an unguided
suborbital launch vehicle as required by § 417.225 and to the
analysis products that the launch operator must file with the FAA
as required by § 417.203(e).
(b) Debris risk analysis constraints. The following
constraints apply to debris risk:
(1) A debris risk analysis must use valid risk analysis models
that compute Ec as the summation over all trajectory time intervals
from lift-off through impact of the products of the probability of
each possible event and the casualty consequences due to debris
impacts for each possible event.
(2) A debris risk analysis must account for the following
populations:
(i) The overflight of populations located inside any flight
hazard area.
(ii) All populations located within five-sigma left and right
crossrange of a nominal trajectory instantaneous impact point
ground trace and within five-sigma of each planned nominal debris
impact.
(3) A debris risk analysis must account for both inert and
explosive debris hazards produced from any impacting debris caused
by normal and malfunctioning launch vehicle flight. The analysis
must account for the debris classes determined by the debris
analysis required by section A417.11. A debris risk analysis must
account for any inert debris impact with mean expected kinetic
energy at impact greater than or equal to 11 ft-lbs and peak
incident overpressure of greater than or equal to 1.0 psi due to
any explosive debris impact. The analysis must account for all
debris hazards as a function of flight time.
(4) A debris risk analysis must account for debris impact points
and dispersion for each class of debris in accordance with the
following:
(i) A debris risk analysis must account for drag corrected
impact points and dispersions for each class of impacting debris
resulting from normal and malfunctioning launch vehicle flight as a
function of trajectory time from lift-off through final impact.
(ii) The dispersion for each debris class must account for the
position and velocity state vector dispersions at breakup, the
variance produced by breakup imparted velocities, the effects of
winds on both the ascent trajectory state vector at breakup and the
descending debris piece impact location, the variance produced by
aerodynamic properties for each debris class, and any other
dispersion variances.
(iii) A debris risk analysis must account for the survivability
of debris fragments that are subject to reentry aerodynamic forces
or heating. A debris class may be eliminated from the debris risk
analysis if the launch operator demonstrates that the debris will
not survive to impact.
(5) A debris risk analysis must account for launch vehicle
failure probability. The following constraints apply:
(i) For flight safety analysis purposes, a failure occurs when a
vehicle does not complete any phase of normal flight or exhibits
the potential for the stage or its debris to impact the Earth or
reenter the atmosphere during the mission or any future mission of
similar vehicle capability. Also, either a launch incident or
launch accident constitutes a failure.
(ii) For a launch vehicle with fewer than 2 flights completed,
the analysis must use a reference value for the launch vehicle
failure probability estimate equal to the upper limit of the 60%
two-sided confidence limits of the binomial distribution for
outcomes of all previous launches of vehicles developed and
launched in similar circumstances. The FAA may adjust the failure
probability estimate to account for the level of experience
demonstrated by the launch operator and other factors that affects
the probability of failure. The FAA may adjust the failure
probability estimate for the second launch based on evidence
obtained from the first flight of the vehicle.
(iii) For a launch vehicle with at least 2 flights completed,
the analysis must use the reference value for the launch vehicle
failure probability of Table C417-2 based on the outcomes of all
previous launches of the vehicle. The FAA may adjust the failure
probability estimate to account for evidence obtained from the
flight history of the vehicle. Failure probability estimate
adjustments to the reference value may account for the nature of
launch outcomes in the flight history of the vehicle, corrective
actions taken in response to a failure of the vehicle, or other
vehicle modifications that may affect reliability. The FAA may
adjust the failure probability estimate to account for the
demonstrated quality of the engineering approach to launch vehicle
processing. The analysis must use a final failure estimate within
the confidence limits of Table C417-2.
(A) Values listed on the far left of Table C417-2 apply when no
launch failures are experienced. Values on the far right apply when
only launch failures are experienced. Values in between apply for
flight histories that include both failures and successes.
(B) Reference values in Table C417-2 are shown in bold. The
reference values are the median values between 60% two-sided
confidence limits of the binomial distribution. For the special
cases of zero or N failures in N launch attempts, the reference
values may also be recognized as the median value between the 80%
one-sided confidence limit of the binomial distribution and zero or
one, respectively.
(C) Upper and lower confidence bounds in Table C417-2 are shown
directly above and below each reference value. These confidence
bounds are based on 60% two-sided confidence limits of the binomial
distribution. For the special cases of zero or N failures in N
launch attempts, the upper and lower confidence bounds are based on
the 80% one-sided confidence limit, respectively.
(6) A debris risk analysis must account for the dwell time of
the instantaneous impact point ground trace over each populated or
protected area being evaluated.
(7) A debris risk analysis must account for the three-sigma
instantaneous impact point trajectory variations in
left-crossrange, right-crossrange, uprange, and downrange as a
function of trajectory time, due to launch vehicle performance
variations as determined by the trajectory analysis performed as
required by section C417.3.
(8) A debris risk analysis must account for the effective
casualty area as a function of launch vehicle flight time for all
impacting debris generated from a catastrophic launch vehicle
malfunction event or a planned impact event. The effective casualty
area must:
(i) Account for both payload and vehicle systems and subsystems
debris;
(ii) Account for all debris fragments determined as part of a
launch operator's debris analysis as required by section
A417.11;
(iii) For each explosive debris fragment, account for a 1.0 psi
blast overpressure radius and the projected debris effects for all
potentially explosive debris; and
(iv) For each inert debris fragment, account for bounce, skip,
slide, and splatter effects; or equal seven times the maximum
projected area of the fragment.
(9) A debris risk analysis must account for current population
density data obtained from a current population database for the
region being evaluated or by estimating the current population
using exponential population growth rate equations applied to the
most current historical data available. The population model must
define population centers that are similar enough to be described
and treated as a single average set of characteristics without
degrading the accuracy of the debris risk estimate.
(c) Debris risk analysis products. The products of a
debris risk analysis that a launch operator must file with the FAA
must include:
(1) A debris risk analysis report that provides the analysis
input data, probabilistic risk determination methods, sample
computations, and text or graphical charts that characterize the
public risk to geographical areas for each launch.
(2) Geographic data showing:
(i) The launch vehicle nominal, five-sigma left-crossrange and
five-sigma right-crossrange instantaneous impact point ground
traces;
(ii) All exclusion zones relative to the instantaneous impact
point ground traces; and
(iii) All populated areas included in the debris risk
analysis.
(3) A discussion of each launch vehicle failure scenario
accounted for in the analysis and the probability of occurrence,
which may vary with flight time, for each failure scenario. This
information must include failure scenarios where a launch
vehicle:
(i) Flies within normal limits until some malfunction causes
spontaneous breakup; and
(ii) Experiences malfunction turns.
(4) A population model applicable to the launch overflight
regions that contains the following: Region identification,
location of the center of each population center by geodetic
latitude and longitude, total area, number of persons in each
population center, and a description of the shelter characteristics
within the population center.
(5) A description of the launch vehicle, including general
information concerning the nature and purpose of the launch and an
overview of the launch vehicle, including a scaled diagram of the
general arrangement and dimensions of the vehicle. A launch
operator's debris risk analysis products may reference other
documentation filed with the FAA containing this information. The
description must include:
(i) Weights and dimensions of each stage.
(ii) Weights and dimensions of any booster motors attached.
(iii) The types of fuel used in each stage and booster.
(iv) Weights and dimensions of all interstage adapters and
skirts.
(v) Payload dimensions, materials, construction, and any payload
fuel; payload fairing construction, materials, and dimensions; and
any non-inert components or materials that add to the effective
casualty area of the debris, such as radioactive or toxic materials
or high-pressure vessels.
(6) A typical sequence of events showing times of ignition,
cutoff, burnout, and jettison of each stage, firing of any ullage
rockets, and starting and ending times of coast periods and control
modes.
(7) The following information for each launch vehicle motor:
(i) Propellant type and composition;
(ii) Vacuum thrust profile;
(iii) Propellant weight and total motor weight as a function of
time;
(iv) A description of each nozzle and steering mechanism;
(v) For solid rocket motors, internal pressure and average
propellant thickness, or borehole radius, as a function of
time;
(vi) Burn rate; and
(vii) Nozzle exit and entrance areas.
(8) The launch vehicle's launch and failure history, including a
summary of past vehicle performance. For a new vehicle with little
or no flight history, a launch operator must provide all known data
on similar vehicles that include:
(i) Identification of the launches that have occurred;
(ii) Launch date, location, and direction of each launch;
(iii) The number of launches that performed normally;
(iv) Behavior and impact location of each abnormal
experience;
(v) The time, altitude, and nature of each malfunction; and
(vi) Descriptions of corrective actions taken, including changes
in vehicle design, flight termination, and guidance and control
hardware and software.
(9) The values of probability of impact (PI) and expected
casualty (Ec) for each populated area.
C417.11 Collision avoidance
(a) General. A flight safety analysis must include a
collision avoidance analysis that satisfies the requirements of §
417.231. This section applies to a launch operator obtaining a
collision avoidance assessment from United States Strategic Command
as required by § 417.231 and to the analysis products that the
launch operator must file with the FAA as required by § 417.203(e).
United States Strategic Command refers to a collision avoidance
analysis for a space launch as a conjunction on launch
assessment.
(b) Analysis not required. A collision avoidance analysis
is not required if the maximum altitude attainable by the launch
operator's unguided suborbital launch vehicle is less than the
altitude of the lowest manned or mannable orbiting object. The
maximum altitude attainable means an optimized trajectory, assuming
3-sigma maximum performance, extended through fuel exhaustion of
each stage, to achieve a maximum altitude.
(c) Analysis constraints. A launch operator must satisfy
the following when obtaining and implementing the results of a
collision avoidance analysis:
(1) A launch operator must provide United States Strategic
Command with the launch window and trajectory data needed to
perform a collision avoidance analysis for a launch as required by
paragraph (d) of this section, at least 15 days before the first
attempt at flight. The FAA will identify a launch operator to
United States Strategic Command as part of issuing a license and
provide a launch operator with current United States Strategic
Command contact information.
(2) A launch operator must obtain a collision avoidance analysis
performed by United States Strategic Command 6 hours before the
beginning of a launch window.
(3) A launch operator may use a collision avoidance analysis for
12 hours from the time that United States Strategic Command
determines the state vectors of the manned or mannable orbiting
objects. If a launch operator needs an updated collision avoidance
analysis due to a launch delay, the launch operator must file the
request with United States Strategic Command at least 12 hours
prior to the beginning of the new launch window.
(4) For every 90 minutes, or portion of 90 minutes, that pass
between the time United States Strategic Command last determined
the state vectors of the orbiting objects, a launch operator must
expand each wait in a launch window by subtracting 15 seconds from
the start of the wait in the launch window and adding 15 seconds to
the end of the wait in the launch window. A launch operator must
incorporate all the resulting waits in the launch window into its
flight commit criteria established as required by § 417.113.
(d) Information required. A launch operator must prepare
a collision avoidance analysis worksheet for each launch using a
standardized format that contains the input data required by this
paragraph. A launch operator must file the input data with United
States Strategic Command for the purposes of completing a collision
avoidance analysis.
(1) Launch information. A launch operator must file the
following launch information:
(i) Mission name. A mnemonic given to the launch
vehicle/payload combination identifying the launch mission from all
others.
(ii) Segment number. A segment is defined as a launch
vehicle stage or payload after the thrusting portion of its flight
has ended. This includes the jettison or deployment of any stage or
payload. A launch operator must provide a separate worksheet for
each segment. For each segment, a launch operator must determine
the “vector at injection” as defined by paragraph (d)(5) of this
section. The data must present each segment number as a sequence
number relative to the total number of segments for a launch, such
as “1 of 5.”
(iii) Launch window. The launch window opening and
closing times in Greenwich Mean Time (referred to as ZULU time) and
the Julian dates for each scheduled launch attempt.
(2) Point of contact. The person or office within a
launch operator's organization that collects, analyzes, and
distributes collision avoidance analysis results.
(3) Collision avoidance analysis results transmission
medium. A launch operator must identify the transmission
medium, such as voice, FAX, or e-mail, for receiving results from
United States Strategic Command.
(4) Requestor launch operator needs. A launch operator
must indicate the types of analysis output formats required for
establishing flight commit criteria for a launch:
(i) Waits. All the times within the launch window during
which flight must not be initiated.
(ii) Windows. All the times within an overall launch
window during which flight may be initiated.
(5) Vector at injection. A launch operator must identify
the vector at injection for each segment. “Vector at injection”
identifies the position and velocity of all orbital or suborbital
segments after the thrust for a segment has ended.
(i) Epoch. The epoch time, in Greenwich Mean Time (GMT),
of the expected launch vehicle liftoff time.
(ii) Position and velocity. The position coordinates in
the EFG coordinate system measured in kilometers and the EFG
components measured in kilometers per second, of each launch
vehicle stage or payload after any burnout, jettison, or
deployment.
(6) Time of powered flight. The elapsed time in seconds,
from liftoff to arrival at the launch vehicle vector at injection.
The input data must include the time of powered flight for each
stage or jettisoned component measured from liftoff.
(7) Time span for launch window file (LWF). A launch
operator must provide the following information regarding its
launch window:
(i) Launch window. The launch window measured in minutes
from the initial proposed liftoff time.
(ii) Time of powered flight. The time provided as
required by paragraph (d)(6) of this section measured in minutes
rounded up to the nearest integer minute.
(iii) Screen duration. The time duration, after all
thrusting periods of flight have ended, that a collision avoidance
analysis must screen for potential conjunctions with manned or
mannable orbital objects. Screen duration is measured in
minutes.
(iv) Extra pad. An additional period of time for
collision avoidance analysis screening to ensure the entire
trajectory time is screened for potential conjunctions with manned
or mannable orbital objects. This time must be 10 minutes unless
otherwise specified by United States Strategic Command.
(v) Total. The summation total of the time spans provided
as required by paragraphs (d)(7)(i) through (d)(7)(iv) expressed in
minutes.
(8) Screening. A launch operator must select spherical or
ellipsoidal screening as defined in this paragraph for determining
any conjunction. The default must be the spherical screening method
using an avoidance radius of 200 kilometers for manned or mannable
orbiting objects. If the launch operator requests screening for any
unmanned or unmannable objects, the default must be the spherical
screening method using a miss-distance of 25 kilometers.
(i) Spherical screening. Spherical screening utilizes an
impact exclusion sphere centered on each orbiting object's
center-of-mass to determine any conjunction. A launch operator must
specify the avoidance radius for manned or mannable objects and for
any unmanned or unmannable objects if the launch operator elects to
perform the analysis for unmanned or unmannable objects.
(ii) Ellipsoidal screening. Ellipsoidal screening
utilizes an impact exclusion ellipsoid of revolution centered on
the orbiting object's center-of-mass to determine any conjunction.
A launch operator must provide input in the UVW coordinate system
in kilometers. The launch operator must provide delta-U measured in
the radial-track direction, delta-V measured in the in-track
direction, and delta-W measured in the cross-range direction.
(9) Deliverable schedule/need dates. A launch operator
must identify the times before flight, referred to as “L-times,”
for which the launch operator requests a collision avoidance
analysis.
(e) Collision avoidance assessment products. A launch
operator must file its collision avoidance analysis products as
required by § 417.203(e) and must include the input data required
by paragraph (d) of this section. A launch operator must
incorporate the result of the collision avoidance analysis into its
flight commit criteria established as required by § 417.113.