Appendix B to Part 417 - Flight Hazard Area Analysis for Aircraft and Ship Protection
14:4.0.2.9.10.7.24.1.17 : Appendix B
Appendix B to Part 417 - Flight Hazard Area Analysis for Aircraft
and Ship Protection B417.1 Scope
This appendix contains requirements to establish aircraft hazard
areas, ship hazard areas, and land impact hazard areas. The
methodologies contained in this appendix represent an acceptable
means of satisfying the requirements of § 417.107 and § 417.223 as
they pertain to ship, aircraft, and land hazard areas. This
appendix provides a standard and a measure of fidelity against
which the FAA will measure any proposed alternative approaches.
Requirements for a launch operator's implementation of a hazard
area are contained in §§ 417.121(e) and (f).
B417.3 Hazard area notifications and surveillance
(a) A launch operator must ensure the following notifications
have been made and adhered to at launch:
(1) A Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) must be issued for every aircraft
hazard area identified as required by sections B417.5 and B417.7.
The NOTAM must be effective no less than thirty minutes prior to
flight and effective until no sooner than thirty minutes after the
air space volume requested by the NOTAM can no longer be affected
by the launch vehicle or its potential hazardous effects.
(2) A Notice to Mariners (NOTMAR) must be issued for every ship
hazard area identified as required by sections B417.5 and B417.7.
The NOTMAR must be effective no less than thirty minutes prior to
flight and effective until no sooner than thirty minutes after the
area requested by the NOTMAR can no longer be affected by the
launch vehicle or its potential hazardous effects.
(3) All local officials and landowners adjacent to any hazard
area must be notified of the flight schedule no less than two days
prior to the flight of the launch vehicle.
(b) A launch operator must survey each of the following hazard
areas:
(1) Each launch site hazard area;
(2) Each aircraft hazard area in the vicinity of the launch
site; and
(3) Each ship hazard area in the vicinity of the launch
site.
B417.5 Launch site hazard area
(a) General. A launch operator must perform a launch site
hazard area analysis that protects the public, aircraft, and ships
from the hazardous activities in the vicinity of the launch site.
The launch operator must evacuate and monitor each launch site
hazard area to ensure compliance with §§ 417.107(b)(2) and
(b)(3).
(b) Launch site hazard area analysis input. A launch site
hazard area must encompass no less than the following:
(1) Each land hazard area in the vicinity of the launch site
calculated as required by section B417.13;
(2) Each ship hazard area in the vicinity of the launch site
calculated as required by section B417.11(c); and
(3) The aircraft hazard area in the vicinity of the launch site
calculated as required by section B417.9(c).
B417.7 Downrange hazard areas
(a) General. A launch operator must perform a downrange
hazard area analysis that protects the public, aircraft, and ships
from the hazardous activities in the vicinity of each scheduled
impact location.
(b) Downrange hazard areas analysis input. A launch
hazard area must bound no less than the following:
(1) The aircraft hazard area in the vicinity of each planned
impact location calculated as required by section B417.9(d);
(2) The ship hazard area in the vicinity of each planned water
impact location calculated as required by section B417.11(d);
and
(3) The land hazard area in the vicinity of each planned land
impact location calculated as required by section B417.13.
B417.9 Aircraft hazard areas analysis
(a) General. A launch operator must perform an aircraft
hazard areas analysis as required by § 417.223(b). A launch
operator's aircraft hazard areas analysis must determine the
aircraft hazard area in the vicinity of the launch site and the
aircraft hazard area in the vicinity of each planned impact
location as required by this section.
(b) Aircraft hazard areas analysis input. A launch
operator must account for the following inputs to determine the
aircraft hazard areas:
(1) The trajectory analysis performed as required by section
A417.7 or section C417.3; and
(2) The debris risk analysis performed as required by section
A417.25 or section C417.9.
(c) Methodology for computing an aircraft hazard area in the
vicinity of the launch site. An aircraft hazard area analysis
must determine an aircraft hazard area that encompasses the launch
point from the surface of the Earth to an altitude of 100,000 ft
MSL and wholly contains the launch vehicle's normal trajectory plus
five nautical miles in every radial direction. A launch operator
must calculate an aircraft hazard area in the vicinity of the
launch site as follows:
(1) Using the trajectory analysis performed as required by
section A417.7 or section C417.3, select all data locations where
the vehicle's nominal altitude, or positional component on the
z-axis, is less than and equal to 100,000 ft MSL.
(2) From the data locations representing the dispersed
trajectories calculated as required by section A417.7(d) or section
C417.3(f) and modified to incorporate a 5 nm buffer as required by
paragraph (c)(1) of this section for the data locations selected
below a nominal altitude of 100,000 ft MSL as required by paragraph
(c)(1) of this section, select the location that is the farthest
left-hand crossrange, the location that is the farthest right-hand
crossrange, the location that is the farthest downrange, and the
location that is the farthest uprange.
(3) Construct a box in the xy plane that includes two lines
parallel to the azimuth, two lines perpendicular to the azimuth,
and contains the four locations selected as required by paragraph
(c)(2) of this section.
(4) Extend the box constructed as required by paragraph (c)(3)
of this section from the surface of the Earth to an infinite
altitude.
(d) Methodology for computing an aircraft hazard area in the
vicinity of each planned impact location. A launch operator
must determine an aircraft hazard area in the vicinity of each
planned impact location from the surface of the Earth to an
altitude of 100,000 ft MSL that wholly contains the launch
vehicle's calculated impact dispersion with a 5 nm buffer and the
normal trajectory. A launch operator must compute an aircraft
hazard area in the vicinity of each planned impact location as
follows:
(1) The analysis must calculate a three-sigma dispersion ellipse
by determining the three-sigma impact limit around a planned impact
location.
(2) Taking the three-sigma dispersion ellipse calculated as
required by paragraph (d)(1) of this section, plot a co-centric
ellipse in the xy plane where the major and minor axes are 10nm
longer than the major and minor axes of the three-sigma dispersion
ellipse.
(3) Extend the ellipse calculated as required by paragraph
(d)(2) of this section from the surface to an infinite
altitude.
(4) Using the trajectory that predicts the instantaneous impact
locations required in section A417.7(g)(7)(xii) or section
C417.3(d), find the location on the trajectory where the vehicle's
nominal altitude is predicted to be 100,000 ft MSL.
(5) At the trajectory time where the altitude is represented as
100,000 ft MSL, select the corresponding points from the normal
trajectory dispersion that are the farthest uprange, downrange,
right crossrange, and left crossrange relative to the nominal
trajectory.
(6) Construct a box in the xy plane that includes two lines
parallel to the azimuth, two lines perpendicular to the azimuth,
and contains the points selected as required by paragraph (d)(5) of
this section and the nominal impact point.
(7) Extend the box constructed as required by paragraph (d)(6)
of this section from the surface of the Earth to an infinite
altitude.
(8) Construct a volume, the aircraft hazard area, that
encompasses the volumes calculated as required by paragraphs (d)(3)
and (d)(7) of this section.
B417.11 Ship hazard areas analysis
(a) General. A flight hazard area analysis must establish
ship hazard areas bound by the 1 × 10−5 ship impact contour in the
vicinity of the launch site and the vehicle's three-sigma
dispersion limit plus a 5 nm buffer in the vicinity of a planned,
downrange impact location.
(b) Ship hazard area analysis input. A launch operator
must account for the following inputs to determine the ship hazard
areas:
(1) The trajectory analysis performed as required by section
A417.7 or section C417.3;
(2) For a launch vehicle flown with a flight safety system, the
malfunction turn analysis required by section A417.9;
(3) The debris analysis required by section A417.11 or section
C417.7 to define the impact locations of each class of debris
established by the debris analysis;
(4) For a launch vehicle flown with a flight safety system, the
time delay analysis required by section A417.21; and
(5) The debris risk analysis performed as required by section
A417.25 or section C417.9.
(c) Methodology for computing ship hazard areas in the
vicinity of the launch site. The analysis must establish the
ship-hit contours as follows:
(1) A ship-hit contour must account for the size of the largest
ship that could be located in the ship hazard area. The analysis
must demonstrate that the ship size used represents the largest
ship that could be present in the ship hazard area or, if the ship
size is unknown, the analysis must use a ship size of 120,000
square feet.
(2) The analysis must first calculate the probability of
impacting the reference ship selected as required by paragraph
(c)(1) of this section at the location of interest. From the
location of interest, move the ship away from the launch location
along a single radial until the probability that debris is present
at that location multiplied by the probability that a ship is at
that location is less than or equal to 1 × 10−5. When calculating
the probability of impacting a ship, an impact occurs when:
(i) The analysis predicts that inert debris will directly impact
the vessel with a mean expected kinetic energy at impact greater
than or equal to 11 ft-lbs; or
(ii) The analysis predicts the peak incident overpressure at the
reference vessel will be greater than or equal to 1.0 psi due to
any explosive debris impact.
(3) The analysis must account for:
(i) The variance in winds;
(ii) The aerodynamic properties of the debris;
(iii) The variance in velocity of the debris;
(iv) Guidance and performance errors;
(v) The type of vehicle breakup, either by any flight
termination system or by aerodynamic forces that may result in
different debris characteristics; and
(vi) Debris impact dispersion resulting from vehicle breakup and
the malfunction turn capabilities of the launch vehicle.
(4) Repeat the process outlined in paragraph (c)(2) of this
section while varying the radial direction until enough locations
are found where the reference ship's probability of impact is less
than or equal to 1 × 10−5 such that connecting each location will
result in a smooth and continuous contour.
(d) Methodology for computing ship hazard areas in the
vicinity of each planned water impact location. A launch
operator must compute a ship hazard area in the vicinity of each
planned impact location as required by the following:
(1) The analysis must calculate a three-sigma dispersion ellipse
by determining the three-sigma impact limit around a planned impact
location.
(2) Taking the three-sigma dispersion ellipse calculated as
required by paragraph (d)(1) of this section, plot a co-centric
ellipse in the xy plane where the major and minor axes are 10 nm
longer than the major and minor axes of the three-sigma dispersion
ellipse.
B417.13 Land hazard areas analysis
(a) General. A flight hazard area analysis must establish
land hazard areas in the vicinity of the launch site and land
hazard areas in the vicinity of each land impact location to ensure
that the probability of a member of the public being struck by
debris satisfies the probability threshold of 1 × 10−6 required by
§ 417.107(b) and to determine exclusion areas that may require
entry control and surveillance prior to initiation of flight. The
analysis must establish a land impact hazard area that accounts for
the effects of impacting debris resulting from normal and
malfunctioning launch vehicle flight, except for toxic effects, and
accounts for potential impact locations of all debris fragments.
The land hazard area must encompass all individual casualty
contours and the near-launch-point blast hazard area calculated as
required by paragraph (c) of this section. A launch operator may
initiate flight only if no member of the public is present within
the land hazard area.
(b) Land hazard areas analysis input. A land hazard
analysis must account for the following inputs to determine the
land hazard area:
(1) The trajectory analysis performed as required by section
A417.7 or section C417.3;
(2) For a launch vehicle flown with a flight safety system, the
malfunction turn analysis required by section A417.9;
(3) The debris analysis required by section A417.11 or section
C417.7 to define the impact locations of each class of debris
established by the debris analysis;
(4) For a launch vehicle flown with a flight safety system, the
time delay analysis required by section A417.21; and
(5) The debris risk analysis performed as required by section
A417.25 or section C417.9.
(c) Methodology for computing land hazard areas in the
vicinity of the launch site and in the vicinity of each planned
land impact location. The analysis must establish a land hazard
area as follows:
(1) Each land hazard area must completely encompass all
individual casualty contours that define where the risk to an
individual would exceed the expected casualty (Ec) criteria of 1 ×
10−6 if one person were assumed to be in the open and inside the
contour during launch vehicle flight. The analysis must produce an
individual casualty contour as follows:
(i) The analysis must account for the location of a hypothetical
person, and must vary the location of the person to determine when
the risk would exceed the Ec criteria of 1 × 10−6. The analysis
must count a person as a casualty when the person's location is
subjected to any inert debris impact with a mean expected kinetic
energy greater than or equal to 11 ft-lbs or a peak incident
overpressure equal to or greater than 1.0 psi due to explosive
debris impact. The analysis must determine the peak incident
overpressure using the Kingery-Bulmash relationship, without regard
to sheltering, reflections, or atmospheric effects.
(ii) The analysis must account for all person locations that are
no more than 1000 feet apart in the downrange direction and no more
than 1000 feet apart in the crossrange direction to produce an
individual casualty contour. For each person location, the analysis
must sum all the probabilities of casualty over all flight times
for all debris groups.
(iii) An individual casualty contour must consist of curves that
are smooth and continuous. To accomplish this, the analysis must
vary the time interval between each trajectory time assessed so
that each location of a debris impact point is less than one-half
sigma of the downrange dispersion distance.
(2) The input for determining a land impact hazard area must
account for the following in order to define the impact locations
of each class of debris established by the debris analysis and the
time delay analysis required by section A417.21 for a launch
vehicle flown with a flight safety system:
(i) The results of the trajectory analysis required by section
A417.7 or section C417.3;
(ii) The malfunction turn analysis required by section A417.9
for a launch vehicle flown with a flight safety system; and
(iii) The debris analysis required by section A417.11 or section
C417.7.
(3) The analysis must account for the extent of the impact
debris dispersions for each debris class produced by normal and
malfunctioning launch vehicle flight at each trajectory time. The
analysis must also account for how the vehicle breaks up, either by
any flight termination system or by aerodynamic forces, if the
different breakup may result in a different probability of
existence for each debris class. A land impact hazard area must
account for each impacting debris fragment classified as required
by section A417.11(c) or section C417.7.
(4) For a launch vehicle flown with a flight safety system, the
analysis must account for launch vehicle flight that exceeds a
flight safety limit. The analysis must also account for trajectory
conditions that maximize the mean debris impact distance during the
flight safety system delay time determined as required by section
A417.21 and account for a debris model that is representative of a
flight termination or aerodynamic breakup.
(5) For each launch vehicle breakup event, the analysis must
account for trajectory and breakup dispersions, variations in
debris class characteristics, and debris dispersion due to any wind
condition under which a launch would be attempted.
(6) The analysis must account for the probability of failure of
each launch vehicle stage and the probability of existence of each
debris class. The analysis must account for the probability of
occurrence of each type of launch vehicle failure. The analysis
must account for each vehicle failure probabilities that vary
depending on the time of flight.
(7) In addition to failure debris, the analysis must account for
nominal jettisoned body debris impacts and the corresponding debris
impact dispersions. The analysis must use a probability of
occurrence of 1.0 for the planned debris fragments produced by
normal separation events during flight.
(d) Near-launch-point blast hazard area. A land hazard
area analysis must define a blast overpressure hazard area as a
circle extending from the launch point with a radius equal to the
1.0 psi overpressure distance produced by the equivalent TNT weight
of the explosive capability of the vehicle. In addition, the
analysis must establish a minimum near-launch point blast hazard
area to provide protection from hazardous fragments potentially
propelled by an explosion. The analysis must account for the
maximum possible total solid and liquid propellant explosive
potential of the launch vehicle and any payload. The analysis must
define a blast overpressure hazard area using the following
equations:
Rop = 45 · (NEW)1/3 Where: Rop is the over pressure distance in
feet. NEW = WE · C (pounds). WE is the weight of the explosive in
pounds. C is the TNT equivalency coefficient of the propellant
being evaluated. A launch operator must identify the TNT
equivalency of each propellant on its launch vehicle including any
payload. TNT equivalency data for common liquid propellants is
provided in tables A417-1. Table A417-2 provides factors for
converting gallons of specified liquid propellants to pounds.
(e) Other hazards. A flight hazard area analysis must
identify any additional hazards, such as radioactive material, that
may exist on the launch vehicle or payload. For each such hazard,
the analysis must determine a hazard area that encompasses any
debris impact point and its dispersion and includes an additional
hazard radius that accounts for potential casualty due to the
additional hazard. Analysis requirements for toxic release and far
field blast overpressure are provided in sections A417.27 and
A417.29, respectively.
(f) Land impact dispersion ellipses. A land impact hazard
area must contain the land impact dispersion ellipse for each
planned land impact. A launch operator must compute a land impact
dispersion ellipse in the vicinity of each planned land impact
location as follows:
(1) The analysis must calculate a one-sigma dispersion ellipse
by determining the one-sigma impact limit around a planned impact
location.
(2) Taking the one-sigma dispersion ellipse calculated as
required by paragraph (f)(1) of this section, plot a co-centric
ellipse in the xy plane where the major and minor axes are 10nm
longer than the major and minor axes of the one-sigma dispersion
ellipse.